[anadoluhaber:35853] Balkan scheming

Worries over Bosnia

Balkan scheming

Efforts to hold Bosnia together have repercussions as far afield as Afghanistan

BOSNIA, scream some hysterical headlines, is on the brink of a new war. It is not. But it is deeply troubled. This month has seen the highest level diplomacy since the end of the war in 1995, in an attempt to break a deadlock that has paralysed its government for three years. The initial omens are not good. Unless a deal is struck soon, notes Zlatko Lagumdzija, an opposition leader, everyone can forget about serious change until after next year's elections.
The Dayton accords, which ended the Bosnian war, formalised the division of the country into two parts: a Serb entity and a federation of Croats and Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims). Until 2006 the country was slowly becoming more functional. But since then progress has halted; the two entities cannot agree, for example, on who should own state property. Bosniaks in Sarajevo want a more centralised state. Serbs in Banja Luka want more autonomy, or even full independence. The European Union wants to shut the office of the high representative, a sort of governor-generalship, whose power has anyway more or less evaporated. But American diplomats are resisting this, arguing that Bosnia could fall apart without foreign oversight.

In such a poisonous atmosphere the Europeans and Americans are trying to persuade the Bosnians to agree to modest constitutional changes. In exchange they are being tempted with the offer of visa-free travel to most EU countries, candidate status for the EU and full NATO membership. The talks have been personally presided over by Carl Bildt, the Swedish foreign minister, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency and who served as the first high representative in Bosnia. The other hosts include Jim Steinberg, America's deputy secretary of state, who was also a figure in the Dayton talks, and Olli Rehn, the EU's enlargement commissioner.
Because of the stakes for Bosnia, and the seniority of those involved, Mr Lagumdzija suggests it will be impossible to declare failure. So when the talks ended on October 21st, a new process was duly announced. Discreetly, corruption allegations against Bosnian leaders may be used to prod them into compromise. What Bosnians may not realise is the importance of the talks for at least some prominent Americans. That is because Richard Holbrooke, the American diplomat who brokered the Dayton deal, is now America's special envoy for Afghanistan. If nation-building cannot work in Bosnia, say his critics, then why waste more blood and treasure in Afghanistan?

Oct 22nd 2009 | BANJA LUKA AND SARAJEVO

http://www.economist.com

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